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a new giant will appear in semiconductor industry

2016-11-15

"the semiconductor industry is about to emerge a new giant! this is definitely not a alarmist statement. the goal of communication's high pass and car electric's nxp is the development trend of the next generation of semiconductors. taiwan relies on the semiconductor industry to support half of its economic strength. if we do not carefully study their next step, i am afraid it will be in the next generation's chip war..." domestic semiconductor executives raised a warning. the 1903 issue of xiantan investment weekly, which will be published on friday, will have an in-depth analysis.
 
   even though the demand for microprocessors related to pc and nb is declining, the demand for internet of things and automotive semiconductors is increasing, which has triggered a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the global semiconductor industry since the beginning of last year, which has pushed the philadelphia semiconductor index to a 16 year high of 840. semiconductor stocks are also important drivers for pushing the recent nasdaq index to a new record. so, is this wave of mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor industry over? at present, it seems that it is not over. recently, it is reported from the wall street market that qualcomm, the leader of mobile communication chips, plans to acquire nxp semiconductor at a price of about 300 billion us dollars, which has pushed this wave of semiconductor industry to another peak.
 
cross vehicle semiconductor is the next main battlefield
 
. after the acquisition of freescale, nxp has become the world's largest manufacturer of automotive semiconductors and a market leader in automotive semiconductor solutions and general micro controller (mcu). the future will focus on the huge business opportunities of automotive semiconductors brought by security, connectivity and post processor.
 
at present, qualcomm is the world's leader in smart mobile phone chips. in addition to providing communication chips for smart mobile phone manufacturers, the licensing of technology patents is the largest revenue source of qualcomm. however, with the gradual maturity of the smart phone industry, it is difficult for the company's gross profit margin to maintain above 60% in the last ten quarters, and the operating profit ratio has dropped below 30% in the past year, resulting in the downward trend of the company's profit. with the gradual maturity of the global smart phone market, qualcomm's future profit prospects are not optimistic, affecting the long-term stock price and shareholder's equity performance. for this reason, if qualcomm can merge with nxp, the leader of automotive semiconductors, and connect cell phone chips with automotive semiconductors, it will indeed make qualcomm the next leader in the field of semiconductors.
 
   this m & a plan is expected to write down the world's first m & a involving mobile phones, nfc electronic payment systems and automotive semiconductors. the future development of semiconductors will be further extended. however, such development may make the current communication chip manufacturers lack other competitiveness in the decline of gross profit, which will frame the future development space. the merger and acquisition of semiconductor industry has become the phenomenon of evergrande, which also points out the importance of professional wafer foundry, which seems to be more favorable for the future development of tsmc. after all, tsmc's business is not as complex as intel or samsung electronics. tsmc has the ability to inject more resources into the professional oem process, so as to provide more powerful manufacturing process to customers and make customers more and more dependent on tsmc. tsmc will be able to tie in existing customers and open up new sources of customers. it will also be able to become an indispensable and important puzzle in the semiconductor industry which emphasizes the division of labor in the future.

  high pass pad in semiconductor attitude

  from the perspective of capital market value, the current capital market value of qualcomm is about $98.9 billion, and the capital market value of nxp semiconductor is about us $350 million. in the future, the combined capital market value of the two companies may reach us $150 billion, which can promote the ranking of qualcomm in the global technology stock market value from the current 12th to the 10th, and has the opportunity to cooperate with tsmc the current market value is competing. it seems that the emergence of the new qualcomm has threatened the existing semiconductor industry. whether it is intel, mediatek (2454) in the consumer electronics industry, or the ic design industry in china, or nvidia, google, which are aiming at the integration of automotive electronic systems, or apple, a potential competitor, a semiconductor war of the next generation has been quietly launched in the beginning, taiwan relies on the semiconductor industry to support half of its economic strength. if we do not carefully study their next step, we may face the crisis of marginalization in the next generation of chip war!
   the acquisition of nxp semiconductors by qualcomm is not only true, but also good news is coming! according to foreign reports, at present, qualcomm is the only pursuer, and nxp is close to nodding. now only the price difference code and how to pay have not been settled. ( investors.com )
 
according to reports, the price gap between the two sides is less than 10%. in terms of the purchase price per share, qualcomm estimates that nxp is worth $110 per share, while nxp claims to be worth $120.
 
   in addition, the payment structure preferred by qualcomm, with cash accounting for three quarters, and the remaining 25% will be paid in the form of shares. as for enzip, it hopes to trade in full cash.
 
the stock price of nxp rose 0.97% on the 6th to close at us $103.49, with a market value of us $35 billion. there are very few manufacturers who can afford this price. in fact, there are only seven components in the philadelphia semiconductor index with a market value higher than that of nxp. qualcomm is one of them and has the most cash on hand.
 
   for qualcomm, nxp is a shortcut to the automotive chip market. in the current situation of mobile chip development encountering bottlenecks, it is imperative for qualcomm to expand into new fields, and nxp provides such an opportunity.
 
   if qualcomm can acquire nxp
 
  if qualcomm can acquire nxp, arm, the world's largest independent semiconductor intellectual property (ip) licenser, linear technology, the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer with the highest gross margin, and nxp, the largest automotive semiconductor manufacturer, will be acquired within one year. even if the amount of semiconductor m & a cases this year is less than that of 2015 in the year-end inventory, the integration of the semiconductor industry will be further deepened in 2016, that is, the leaders in various sub sectors are beginning to be eaten.
 
   since the acquisition of csr with us $2.5 billion, qualcomm has not made any major moves in the past two years. however, in the era of big m & a, with a lot of cash in hand, it is facing the actual pressure of weak growth of mobile phone chips (from the trend of chip design by mobile phone system manufacturers, it is very likely that the commercial chips of mobile phones will decline in the next few years), so it is repeatedly caught in the rumors of acquisition. previously, the most popular rumor is that qualcomm will acquire xilinx and combine with xilinx's fpga to compete with intel in the field of data center.
 
  in data center, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other fields, fpga has a lot of imagination. but after intel's revenue from altera, what's the significance for qualcomm to buy xilinx again? although xilinx leads altera in market share, its revenue is in the same order of magnitude, and its technology is in the same level. xilinx has not many leading positions. however, in the field of server chips, qualcomm is only in its infancy. to compete with intel in this field, it mainly depends on itself, and it cannot place its hope on the boxers.
 
why not buy?
 
ic insights, a market research organization, predicts that automotive electronics will be the fastest growing semiconductor application market in the next few years, with a compound annual growth rate of 8% from 2015 to 2019. moreover, the threshold of automotive semiconductor market is high and the profit margin is high. chinese manufacturers have little success in this field. this is the position that european and american semiconductor manufacturers must occupy in the future.
 
for many years, fabless (chip design companies) manufacturers, which have enjoyed great popularity in the communication and consumer electronics markets, have not developed smoothly in the automotive market. there are no wafer less manufacturers among the top ten automobile manufacturers. after years of hard work, manufacturers such as qualcomm, broadcom and nvidia have achieved little, but they have not entered the ranks of mainstream manufacturers. take nvidia, which is the most popular company in the automotive industry, as an example. in 2015, the revenue of automotive electronics business reached 320 million us dollars, up 75% year on year, but there is still a big gap from the top ten thresholds (646 million us dollars).
 
if we use intel's strength to do communication, wimax and mobile phone chips are all dead end, and spending money like water only leads to a conclusion that "making is better than buying". so, in the face of the automotive electronics market, when qualcomm has the opportunity to buy nxip, why not start?
 
   with the complete layout of nxp in the automotive electronics market and the powerful system design capability of qualcomm, the trend of automotive semiconductor market toward monopoly is likely to accelerate. at the 2016 nxp ftf technology summit, kurt sievers, executive vice president and general manager of automotive business unit of nxp, may have made a prophecy: "although nxp is the largest automobile semi director